2025 Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey: Fall migration outlook

In 2025, Canada’s wild weather didn’t let up. From parched prairies to smoke-filled skies, extreme conditions once again swept across the country, impacting waterfowl habitats in their wake. For hunters and birders, big questions remain: how are duck populations holding up, and will fall migration bring back the familiar flurry of wings overhead?

What is the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey?

The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, also known as the Breeding Population Survey (BPOP) or the May Survey, is a key resource that helps guide waterfowl conservation across North America. Led by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS), and regional partners, like Ducks Unlimited Canada (DUC), the survey tracks spring breeding populations of ducks, geese and swans. It also assesses wetland conditions, particularly in the Prairie Pothole Region, where researchers are counting ponds, to determine habitat health.

Launched in 1955, BPOP is one of the largest and longest-running wildlife surveys in the world, covering more than two million square miles across principal breeding areas in North America, and includes parts of Alaska, Canada and northcentral and northeast United States. Its findings have played an important role in habitat management across North America by revealing broad-scale trends in migratory bird populations.

This year’s results include a welcome dose of optimism in the face of another year of persistent drought on the Prairies. North America’s ducks are proving resilient with duck numbers holding steady.

While still about four per cent below the long-term average, the 2025 survey estimates roughly 34 million breeding ducks across the traditional survey area, like last year’s count, maintaining 2024’s first upward shift in duck numbers since 2015.
For Ducks Unlimited Canada, the message is clear: when wetlands remain, waterfowl endure.

“The 2025 results reinforce what decades of research have shown us — healthy waterfowl populations depend on healthy habitats,” says Matt Dyson, research scientist at Ducks Unlimited Canada. “While it’s encouraging to see stability in breeding numbers, it’s also a clear signal that we must keep investing in habitat conservation and restoration across the continent. DUC remains committed to working with our partners to ensure waterfowl have the resources they need throughout their annual cycle.”

Ducks Unlimited Canada embraces a scientific approach to conserving wetlands and associated uplands that support North America’s waterfowl populations. Research and innovation have helped uncover the unique relationships among wetlands, waterfowl, biodiversity, ecosystem services, species at risk and more. DUC also focuses on how those habitats benefit other wildlife and directly improve human lives, too. Across Canada, our experts are using knowledge and skills to ask and answer the big environmental questions that affect all of us. Although habitats across the breeding range play a role in the life cycles of waterfowl, research confirms that the breeding grounds have the most significant impact on populations.

Moreover, waterfowl research highlights the importance of sustained, continent-wide investment in habitat conservation and restoration to support waterfowl throughout their annual cycle—especially during the breeding season, when populations are most affected. With more than 87 years of experience studying the factors that influence waterfowl dynamics, DUC continues to collaborate with partners across the landscape to drive meaningful conservation action.

Canada’s continental responsibility

Canada’s Prairie Pothole Region drives the abundance of ducks seen across all four North American flyways. But May pond counts, a key measure of available wetlands, fell to just 4.2 million, down 19 per cent from 2024 and 20 per cent below the long-term average, marking the lowest level since 2004. This drop demonstrates how quickly breeding habitat can disappear when drought collides with wetland drainage and grassland loss.

DUC’s prairie programs, including wetland restoration, conservation easements, grazing systems and water management, help ensure wetlands remain on the land. These efforts buffer populations in dry years and provide the springboard for rapid rebounds when moisture returns.

Learn more about the North American Conservation for a Continent campaign.