Flight status

If habitat conditions improved, why didn’t duck numbers surge as well?

The answer lies in how waterfowl populations respond to environmental conditions, it’s all about timing.

The 2026 breeding population estimate for total ducks in the traditional survey area was 33.4 million birds, statistically unchanged from 2025 and six per cent below the LTA.

While better wetland conditions are encouraging, the ducks counted during this spring’s survey largely reflect the cumulative effects of habitat conditions experienced over the preceding several years. Poor conditions were ubiquitous across much of the breeding habitat in 2025, suggesting poor production, so a result of 2026 populations remaining relatively unchanged is positive.

Looking toward 2027, we expect improved breeding conditions to be reflected in those abundance estimates provided wetland numbers remain relatively stable through next spring. Importantly, while we continued to see precipitation during the spring, much of it came later than when many ducks were migrating through and settling, which may have resulted in a reduced proportion of the breeding population being able to take advantage of the improved conditions. If habitat conditions stay stable through spring 2027, we might expect a larger proportion of the breeding population choosing to settle in the Prairies.

While there remains reason for optimism, pond counts are still below the LTA and large booms in duck populations require conditions wetter than the LTA, so habitat conditions still have a long way to go to have the capacity to support similar population booms seen in the mid-2010s.

Wet years help refill ponds and improve habitat conditions, but populations are influenced by the cumulative effects of habitat conditions experienced over many breeding seasons. Conservation works in much the same way. The benefits of conserving wetlands and grasslands while supporting working landscapes often accumulate gradually, helping ensure birds can respond when favourable conditions eventually return.

Some ducks continue to face headwinds.

Mallards, North America’s most familiar duck species and often considered an indicator of prairie health, declined to 5.9 million birds. That estimate was 11 per cent lower than 2025 and 26 per cent below the LTA and the lowest estimate since the early 1990s following prolonged drought in the 1980s.

Some of the most pronounced declines occurred in the southern Prairies. Southern Manitoba’s mallard population fell 42 per cent from 2025 and remained more than 50 per cent below its LTA. Southern Saskatchewan, despite improved wetland conditions, continued to sit 40 per cent below its historical average. If current habitat conditions are maintained into 2027, we should expect to see these numbers improve.

Northern pintails had a continental population estimate of roughly two million birds, similar to 2025 but still 48 per cent below the LTA. In portions of southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, pintail numbers remain well below historical levels. Their continued struggle highlights the challenges facing species that depend heavily on landscapes affected by agricultural intensification and grassland loss, which provides critical nesting habitat for this species.

Improved wetland conditions in 2026 will hopefully provide a boost in productivity for pintail moving into 2027.

Not every species followed the same trajectory.

Several duck species associated with different habitat types produced encouraging results. Northern shovelers increased 19 per cent from 2025 and finished 24 per cent above their LTA. Redheads remained well above historical averages, and canvasbacks also continued to outperform long-term benchmarks. These results remind us that waterfowl populations respond differently to habitat conditions depending on their ecology, breeding strategies and geographic distribution.

The boreal forest performed particularly well in 2026.

The survey area spanning northern Saskatchewan, northern Manitoba and western Ontario saw a 21 per cent increase in total duck numbers compared to 2025 and finished slightly above its LTA. Meanwhile, the expansive breeding region covering central and northern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia and the Northwest Territories supported more than 10.7 million ducks, approximately 40 per cent above its LTA.

The boreal continues to serve as a buffer for the Prairies during drought because of its more stable wetland conditions underscoring the critical importance of boreal habitats to continental duck populations.

British Columbia also delivered positive news. The province’s total duck estimate increased 15 per cent from 2025 and stood 32 per cent above its LTA. While B.C. contributes only a fraction of the continent’s overall breeding ducks, the results highlight the importance of western wetland habitats to the Pacific Flyway and complementary provincial surveys beyond the traditional survey area.

Eastern Canada remained relatively stable.

Survey crews reported generally good-to-excellent habitat conditions across much of eastern Canada, the Maritimes and the Great Lakes region for a third consecutive year.

Mallard numbers in eastern North America held steady at approximately 890,000 ducks, however they remain well below their LTA, and green-winged teal also fell to greater than 10 per cent below their LTA. American black ducks saw a slight decline since 2025 but remained six per cent above their LTA, and ring-necked ducks also continued to perform well relative to historical benchmarks.

The impacts of habitat health extend far beyond ducks and their breeding season.

Across the Canadian Prairies, wetlands continue to face pressure from drainage, cultivation and other forms of land conversion. Grasslands, which provide essential nesting cover for many duck species, remain among the most threatened ecosystems in North America. The 2026 survey serves as a reminder that while weather influences annual outcomes, long-term habitat conservation determines whether populations have the capacity to rebound when favourable conditions return.

This year’s survey also offers an important reminder of why NAWMP’s habitat-first approach remains relevant. The encouraging increase in prairie pond numbers demonstrates that water can return quickly when conditions improve.

Whether ducks can take full advantage of those improved conditions depends on whether enough wetlands and their associated uplands remain on the landscape. Habitat is the foundation upon which population recovery is built.

That understanding has guided the work of DUC, Ducks Unlimited, Inc. and Ducks Unlimited de México for decades. The 2026 survey may be a snapshot in time, but it reinforces a lesson DUC conservationists have learned repeatedly over the past 89 years: where habitat remains, ducks respond. The work we do now will help determine what future surveys reveal about the health of North America’s wetlands and waterfowl.

If there is a takeaway from the 2026 survey, it is that the landscape is showing signs of improvement. Wetland conditions have seen improvement on many key breeding areas across Canada. Encouraging habitat conditions are creating opportunities for better production in 2026, which will likely translate to population growth.

Now comes the equally important task of ensuring those wetlands and grasslands in the working landscapes of the Prairie Pothole Region remain intact for waterfowl populations to fully respond.

Supporting waterfowl populations through conservation at scale

Guided by science, DUC uses a range of conservation tools to protect and improve these habitats — from acquiring and securing conservation easements on high-value wetlands and grasslands, to working with landowners through programs such as marginal areas to improve habitat on working landscapes.

These approaches allow DUC to partner with landowners and producers in priority areas where habitat conservation and restoration can have the greatest impact on waterfowl production. By conserving, restoring and managing wetlands and grasslands, DUC helps provide the nesting, feeding, brood-rearing and migration habitat waterfowl need to survive and reproduce — supporting healthy, resilient waterfowl populations for generations to come.